[
  {
    "claim_id": "claim-001",
    "hypothesis_id": "",
    "claim_status": "partially supported",
    "plain_language_claim": "Descriptive male majority in CBI known related offenders",
    "technical_claim": "CBI public aggregate tables show Boulder known related offenders average about three quarters male for 2016-2025 in prior report outputs.",
    "stage": "cross-stage or source-specific",
    "estimand": "not a final confirmatory estimand unless stated",
    "unit_of_analysis": "claim",
    "eligible_population": "varies by claim",
    "conditioning_set": "",
    "agency_or_agencies": "Boulder County agencies where applicable",
    "period_start": "",
    "period_end": "2026-06-24",
    "comparison_groups": "",
    "recorded_sex_or_gender_definition": "source-recorded where available; no name inference",
    "estimate_type": "qualitative status",
    "estimate": "",
    "ci_low": "",
    "ci_high": "",
    "confidence_level": "",
    "p_value": "",
    "q_value": "",
    "n_observations": "",
    "n_events": "",
    "denominator": "",
    "absolute_affected_count": "",
    "main_model_id": "",
    "covariate_set_id": "",
    "within_incident_design": "not available in public release",
    "robustness_summary": "pending restricted/case-level data",
    "specifications_supporting": "",
    "specifications_total": "",
    "proof_tier": "",
    "source_ids": "source_manifest_public.csv",
    "analysis_commit": "",
    "data_snapshot_hash": "ba96daf88005c3a8c0223ae3597f2289b6c6e699bdad62f090cd175eb9b2f1e2",
    "preregistration_hash": "",
    "codebook_version": "public export 2026-06-24",
    "last_verified": "2026-06-24",
    "limitations": "No further evidence needed for this limited aggregate description; denominators remain police-reported CBI records only.",
    "public_language_allowed": true
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "claim-002",
    "hypothesis_id": "",
    "claim_status": "unresolved because required data are unavailable",
    "plain_language_claim": "Differential police treatment",
    "technical_claim": "Public aggregate tables do not contain comparable pre-decision facts or no-arrest denominator.",
    "stage": "cross-stage or source-specific",
    "estimand": "not a final confirmatory estimand unless stated",
    "unit_of_analysis": "claim",
    "eligible_population": "varies by claim",
    "conditioning_set": "",
    "agency_or_agencies": "Boulder County agencies where applicable",
    "period_start": "",
    "period_end": "2026-06-24",
    "comparison_groups": "",
    "recorded_sex_or_gender_definition": "source-recorded where available; no name inference",
    "estimate_type": "qualitative status",
    "estimate": "",
    "ci_low": "",
    "ci_high": "",
    "confidence_level": "",
    "p_value": "",
    "q_value": "",
    "n_observations": "",
    "n_events": "",
    "denominator": "",
    "absolute_affected_count": "",
    "main_model_id": "",
    "covariate_set_id": "",
    "within_incident_design": "not available in public release",
    "robustness_summary": "pending restricted/case-level data",
    "specifications_supporting": "",
    "specifications_total": "",
    "proof_tier": "",
    "source_ids": "source_manifest_public.csv",
    "analysis_commit": "",
    "data_snapshot_hash": "ba96daf88005c3a8c0223ae3597f2289b6c6e699bdad62f090cd175eb9b2f1e2",
    "preregistration_hash": "",
    "codebook_version": "public export 2026-06-24",
    "last_verified": "2026-06-24",
    "limitations": "Incident-level CAD/RMS, narratives, evidence metadata, probable-cause coding, agency/policy versions.",
    "public_language_allowed": true
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "claim-003",
    "hypothesis_id": "",
    "claim_status": "unresolved because required data are unavailable",
    "plain_language_claim": "False-positive criminalization",
    "technical_claim": "No independent legal-sufficiency review sample yet.",
    "stage": "cross-stage or source-specific",
    "estimand": "not a final confirmatory estimand unless stated",
    "unit_of_analysis": "claim",
    "eligible_population": "varies by claim",
    "conditioning_set": "",
    "agency_or_agencies": "Boulder County agencies where applicable",
    "period_start": "",
    "period_end": "2026-06-24",
    "comparison_groups": "",
    "recorded_sex_or_gender_definition": "source-recorded where available; no name inference",
    "estimate_type": "qualitative status",
    "estimate": "",
    "ci_low": "",
    "ci_high": "",
    "confidence_level": "",
    "p_value": "",
    "q_value": "",
    "n_observations": "",
    "n_events": "",
    "denominator": "",
    "absolute_affected_count": "",
    "main_model_id": "",
    "covariate_set_id": "",
    "within_incident_design": "not available in public release",
    "robustness_summary": "pending restricted/case-level data",
    "specifications_supporting": "",
    "specifications_total": "",
    "proof_tier": "",
    "source_ids": "source_manifest_public.csv",
    "analysis_commit": "",
    "data_snapshot_hash": "ba96daf88005c3a8c0223ae3597f2289b6c6e699bdad62f090cd175eb9b2f1e2",
    "preregistration_hash": "",
    "codebook_version": "public export 2026-06-24",
    "last_verified": "2026-06-24",
    "limitations": "Blinded record sample and legal-panel ratings.",
    "public_language_allowed": true
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "claim-004",
    "hypothesis_id": "",
    "claim_status": "unresolved because required data are unavailable",
    "plain_language_claim": "False-negative underenforcement",
    "technical_claim": "No no-arrest/civil classified narrative sample yet.",
    "stage": "cross-stage or source-specific",
    "estimand": "not a final confirmatory estimand unless stated",
    "unit_of_analysis": "claim",
    "eligible_population": "varies by claim",
    "conditioning_set": "",
    "agency_or_agencies": "Boulder County agencies where applicable",
    "period_start": "",
    "period_end": "2026-06-24",
    "comparison_groups": "",
    "recorded_sex_or_gender_definition": "source-recorded where available; no name inference",
    "estimate_type": "qualitative status",
    "estimate": "",
    "ci_low": "",
    "ci_high": "",
    "confidence_level": "",
    "p_value": "",
    "q_value": "",
    "n_observations": "",
    "n_events": "",
    "denominator": "",
    "absolute_affected_count": "",
    "main_model_id": "",
    "covariate_set_id": "",
    "within_incident_design": "not available in public release",
    "robustness_summary": "pending restricted/case-level data",
    "specifications_supporting": "",
    "specifications_total": "",
    "proof_tier": "",
    "source_ids": "source_manifest_public.csv",
    "analysis_commit": "",
    "data_snapshot_hash": "ba96daf88005c3a8c0223ae3597f2289b6c6e699bdad62f090cd175eb9b2f1e2",
    "preregistration_hash": "",
    "codebook_version": "public export 2026-06-24",
    "last_verified": "2026-06-24",
    "limitations": "CAD/RMS no-arrest events and legal-panel ratings.",
    "public_language_allowed": true
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "claim-005",
    "hypothesis_id": "",
    "claim_status": "unresolved because required data are unavailable",
    "plain_language_claim": "Downstream disparity",
    "technical_claim": "DA technical notes identify dashboard limitations; public docket sample is not sufficient.",
    "stage": "cross-stage or source-specific",
    "estimand": "not a final confirmatory estimand unless stated",
    "unit_of_analysis": "claim",
    "eligible_population": "varies by claim",
    "conditioning_set": "",
    "agency_or_agencies": "Boulder County agencies where applicable",
    "period_start": "",
    "period_end": "2026-06-24",
    "comparison_groups": "",
    "recorded_sex_or_gender_definition": "source-recorded where available; no name inference",
    "estimate_type": "qualitative status",
    "estimate": "",
    "ci_low": "",
    "ci_high": "",
    "confidence_level": "",
    "p_value": "",
    "q_value": "",
    "n_observations": "",
    "n_events": "",
    "denominator": "",
    "absolute_affected_count": "",
    "main_model_id": "",
    "covariate_set_id": "",
    "within_incident_design": "not available in public release",
    "robustness_summary": "pending restricted/case-level data",
    "specifications_supporting": "",
    "specifications_total": "",
    "proof_tier": "",
    "source_ids": "source_manifest_public.csv",
    "analysis_commit": "",
    "data_snapshot_hash": "ba96daf88005c3a8c0223ae3597f2289b6c6e699bdad62f090cd175eb9b2f1e2",
    "preregistration_hash": "",
    "codebook_version": "public export 2026-06-24",
    "last_verified": "2026-06-24",
    "limitations": "DA Action extract and Judicial Branch count-level compiled data.",
    "public_language_allowed": true
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "claim-006",
    "hypothesis_id": "",
    "claim_status": "partially supported",
    "plain_language_claim": "Recent verified favorable outcomes for Boulder-nexus male accused parties exist",
    "technical_claim": "Cronin preliminary-hearing dismissal/settlement and Higdon reversal/remand are verified from public primary documents; Pollack had dropped charges but failed civil claims.",
    "stage": "cross-stage or source-specific",
    "estimand": "not a final confirmatory estimand unless stated",
    "unit_of_analysis": "claim",
    "eligible_population": "varies by claim",
    "conditioning_set": "",
    "agency_or_agencies": "Boulder County agencies where applicable",
    "period_start": "",
    "period_end": "2026-06-24",
    "comparison_groups": "",
    "recorded_sex_or_gender_definition": "source-recorded where available; no name inference",
    "estimate_type": "qualitative status",
    "estimate": "",
    "ci_low": "",
    "ci_high": "",
    "confidence_level": "",
    "p_value": "",
    "q_value": "",
    "n_observations": "",
    "n_events": "",
    "denominator": "",
    "absolute_affected_count": "",
    "main_model_id": "",
    "covariate_set_id": "",
    "within_incident_design": "not available in public release",
    "robustness_summary": "pending restricted/case-level data",
    "specifications_supporting": "",
    "specifications_total": "",
    "proof_tier": "",
    "source_ids": "source_manifest_public.csv",
    "analysis_commit": "",
    "data_snapshot_hash": "ba96daf88005c3a8c0223ae3597f2289b6c6e699bdad62f090cd175eb9b2f1e2",
    "preregistration_hash": "",
    "codebook_version": "public export 2026-06-24",
    "last_verified": "2026-06-24",
    "limitations": "Exhaustive case discovery and denominator records to estimate rate/trend.",
    "public_language_allowed": true
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "claim-007",
    "hypothesis_id": "",
    "claim_status": "not supported",
    "plain_language_claim": "Recent Boulder cases prove knowing false private allegations against men",
    "technical_claim": "Current seed proof matrix contains no Tier 1-2 false-report or private-allegation falsity finding.",
    "stage": "cross-stage or source-specific",
    "estimand": "not a final confirmatory estimand unless stated",
    "unit_of_analysis": "claim",
    "eligible_population": "varies by claim",
    "conditioning_set": "",
    "agency_or_agencies": "Boulder County agencies where applicable",
    "period_start": "",
    "period_end": "2026-06-24",
    "comparison_groups": "",
    "recorded_sex_or_gender_definition": "source-recorded where available; no name inference",
    "estimate_type": "qualitative status",
    "estimate": "",
    "ci_low": "",
    "ci_high": "",
    "confidence_level": "",
    "p_value": "",
    "q_value": "",
    "n_observations": "",
    "n_events": "",
    "denominator": "",
    "absolute_affected_count": "",
    "main_model_id": "",
    "covariate_set_id": "",
    "within_incident_design": "not available in public release",
    "robustness_summary": "pending restricted/case-level data",
    "specifications_supporting": "",
    "specifications_total": "",
    "proof_tier": "",
    "source_ids": "source_manifest_public.csv",
    "analysis_commit": "",
    "data_snapshot_hash": "ba96daf88005c3a8c0223ae3597f2289b6c6e699bdad62f090cd175eb9b2f1e2",
    "preregistration_hash": "",
    "codebook_version": "public export 2026-06-24",
    "last_verified": "2026-06-24",
    "limitations": "Final false-reporting finding, admission, conviction, or equivalent merits finding tied to the allegation.",
    "public_language_allowed": true
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "claim-008",
    "hypothesis_id": "",
    "claim_status": "contradicted by the primary record",
    "plain_language_claim": "Cronin settlement proves adjudicated damages or admitted liability",
    "technical_claim": "Council packet/proposed agreement shows $1 million settlement and compromise of disputed issues; no liability admission or damages verdict located.",
    "stage": "cross-stage or source-specific",
    "estimand": "not a final confirmatory estimand unless stated",
    "unit_of_analysis": "claim",
    "eligible_population": "varies by claim",
    "conditioning_set": "",
    "agency_or_agencies": "Boulder County agencies where applicable",
    "period_start": "",
    "period_end": "2026-06-24",
    "comparison_groups": "",
    "recorded_sex_or_gender_definition": "source-recorded where available; no name inference",
    "estimate_type": "qualitative status",
    "estimate": "",
    "ci_low": "",
    "ci_high": "",
    "confidence_level": "",
    "p_value": "",
    "q_value": "",
    "n_observations": "",
    "n_events": "",
    "denominator": "",
    "absolute_affected_count": "",
    "main_model_id": "",
    "covariate_set_id": "",
    "within_incident_design": "not available in public release",
    "robustness_summary": "pending restricted/case-level data",
    "specifications_supporting": "",
    "specifications_total": "",
    "proof_tier": "",
    "source_ids": "source_manifest_public.csv",
    "analysis_commit": "",
    "data_snapshot_hash": "ba96daf88005c3a8c0223ae3597f2289b6c6e699bdad62f090cd175eb9b2f1e2",
    "preregistration_hash": "",
    "codebook_version": "public export 2026-06-24",
    "last_verified": "2026-06-24",
    "limitations": "Judgment/verdict or agreement term admitting liability/damages.",
    "public_language_allowed": true
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "claim-009",
    "hypothesis_id": "",
    "claim_status": "not supported",
    "plain_language_claim": "Higdon reversal proves factual innocence or false accusation",
    "technical_claim": "Court of Appeals reversed/remanded for due-process/plain-error issue involving post-Miranda silence; no factual-innocence or false-report finding.",
    "stage": "cross-stage or source-specific",
    "estimand": "not a final confirmatory estimand unless stated",
    "unit_of_analysis": "claim",
    "eligible_population": "varies by claim",
    "conditioning_set": "",
    "agency_or_agencies": "Boulder County agencies where applicable",
    "period_start": "",
    "period_end": "2026-06-24",
    "comparison_groups": "",
    "recorded_sex_or_gender_definition": "source-recorded where available; no name inference",
    "estimate_type": "qualitative status",
    "estimate": "",
    "ci_low": "",
    "ci_high": "",
    "confidence_level": "",
    "p_value": "",
    "q_value": "",
    "n_observations": "",
    "n_events": "",
    "denominator": "",
    "absolute_affected_count": "",
    "main_model_id": "",
    "covariate_set_id": "",
    "within_incident_design": "not available in public release",
    "robustness_summary": "pending restricted/case-level data",
    "specifications_supporting": "",
    "specifications_total": "",
    "proof_tier": "",
    "source_ids": "source_manifest_public.csv",
    "analysis_commit": "",
    "data_snapshot_hash": "ba96daf88005c3a8c0223ae3597f2289b6c6e699bdad62f090cd175eb9b2f1e2",
    "preregistration_hash": "",
    "codebook_version": "public export 2026-06-24",
    "last_verified": "2026-06-24",
    "limitations": "Later dismissal/exoneration, insufficiency ruling, or false-report finding if any.",
    "public_language_allowed": true
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "claim-010",
    "hypothesis_id": "",
    "claim_status": "contradicted by the primary record",
    "plain_language_claim": "Pollack supports unjust prosecution trend",
    "technical_claim": "District court granted summary judgment to officer; probable cause remained even excluding disputed interview.",
    "stage": "cross-stage or source-specific",
    "estimand": "not a final confirmatory estimand unless stated",
    "unit_of_analysis": "claim",
    "eligible_population": "varies by claim",
    "conditioning_set": "",
    "agency_or_agencies": "Boulder County agencies where applicable",
    "period_start": "",
    "period_end": "2026-06-24",
    "comparison_groups": "",
    "recorded_sex_or_gender_definition": "source-recorded where available; no name inference",
    "estimate_type": "qualitative status",
    "estimate": "",
    "ci_low": "",
    "ci_high": "",
    "confidence_level": "",
    "p_value": "",
    "q_value": "",
    "n_observations": "",
    "n_events": "",
    "denominator": "",
    "absolute_affected_count": "",
    "main_model_id": "",
    "covariate_set_id": "",
    "within_incident_design": "not available in public release",
    "robustness_summary": "pending restricted/case-level data",
    "specifications_supporting": "",
    "specifications_total": "",
    "proof_tier": "",
    "source_ids": "source_manifest_public.csv",
    "analysis_commit": "",
    "data_snapshot_hash": "ba96daf88005c3a8c0223ae3597f2289b6c6e699bdad62f090cd175eb9b2f1e2",
    "preregistration_hash": "",
    "codebook_version": "public export 2026-06-24",
    "last_verified": "2026-06-24",
    "limitations": "None for current civil claim; appellate document still to preserve.",
    "public_language_allowed": true
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "claim-011",
    "hypothesis_id": "",
    "claim_status": "not supported",
    "plain_language_claim": "46-case audit establishes male-specific false-accusation or overenforcement trend",
    "technical_claim": "Audit verifies case-management failures and time-barred DV cases, but public aggregate record lacks party sex/gender and favorable-outcome coding.",
    "stage": "cross-stage or source-specific",
    "estimand": "not a final confirmatory estimand unless stated",
    "unit_of_analysis": "claim",
    "eligible_population": "varies by claim",
    "conditioning_set": "",
    "agency_or_agencies": "Boulder County agencies where applicable",
    "period_start": "",
    "period_end": "2026-06-24",
    "comparison_groups": "",
    "recorded_sex_or_gender_definition": "source-recorded where available; no name inference",
    "estimate_type": "qualitative status",
    "estimate": "",
    "ci_low": "",
    "ci_high": "",
    "confidence_level": "",
    "p_value": "",
    "q_value": "",
    "n_observations": "",
    "n_events": "",
    "denominator": "",
    "absolute_affected_count": "",
    "main_model_id": "",
    "covariate_set_id": "",
    "within_incident_design": "not available in public release",
    "robustness_summary": "pending restricted/case-level data",
    "specifications_supporting": "",
    "specifications_total": "",
    "proof_tier": "",
    "source_ids": "source_manifest_public.csv",
    "analysis_commit": "",
    "data_snapshot_hash": "ba96daf88005c3a8c0223ae3597f2289b6c6e699bdad62f090cd175eb9b2f1e2",
    "preregistration_hash": "",
    "codebook_version": "public export 2026-06-24",
    "last_verified": "2026-06-24",
    "limitations": "Deidentified case-level crosswalk with party sex/gender, allegation type, arrest/referral/filing/finality, and complaints/settlements.",
    "public_language_allowed": true
  },
  {
    "claim_id": "claim-public-001",
    "hypothesis_id": "",
    "claim_status": "supported_as_public_descriptive_context",
    "plain_language_claim": "Boulder Police public domestic-labeled calls had higher arrest-coded disposition rates than public civil-labeled calls in 2023 through partial 2026.",
    "technical_claim": "Domestic-labeled calls had arrest-coded dispositions of 12.30% to 13.41%; civil-labeled calls had 0.28% to 1.30%. These are public call-disposition labels, not verified arrests or sex-disparity estimates.",
    "stage": "public call disposition",
    "estimand": "P(arrest-coded disposition | public call candidate family)",
    "unit_of_analysis": "public CAD call row",
    "eligible_population": "Boulder PD public calls matching screen terms",
    "conditioning_set": "none; descriptive",
    "agency_or_agencies": "Boulder Police Department",
    "period_start": "2023-01-01",
    "period_end": "2026-06-24",
    "comparison_groups": "domestic_label vs civil_label and other candidate labels",
    "recorded_sex_or_gender_definition": "not available in public call layer",
    "estimate_type": "percentage range by year",
    "estimate": "12.30-13.41",
    "ci_low": "",
    "ci_high": "",
    "confidence_level": "",
    "p_value": "",
    "q_value": "",
    "n_observations": "45361",
    "n_events": "",
    "denominator": "public screened Boulder PD call rows",
    "absolute_affected_count": "",
    "main_model_id": "descriptive-public-call-screen",
    "covariate_set_id": "none",
    "within_incident_design": "false",
    "robustness_summary": "public label screen only",
    "specifications_supporting": "",
    "specifications_total": "",
    "proof_tier": "",
    "source_ids": "boulder_pd_public_call_arrest_disposition_rates.csv",
    "analysis_commit": "",
    "data_snapshot_hash": "ba96daf88005c3a8c0223ae3597f2289b6c6e699bdad62f090cd175eb9b2f1e2",
    "preregistration_hash": "",
    "codebook_version": "public export 2026-06-24",
    "last_verified": "2026-06-24",
    "limitations": "No party sex/gender, relationship, narrative, probable-cause, referral, filing, or court-outcome fields.",
    "public_language_allowed": true
  }
]
