Abstract

This study examines temporal trends, geographic distribution, and demographic correlates of anti-vaccine beliefs on Twitter, 2009-2015. A total of 549,972 tweets were downloaded and coded for the presence of anti-vaccine beliefs through a machine learning algorithm. Tweets with self-disclosed geographic information were resolved and United States Census data were collected for corresponding areas at the micropolitan/metropolitan level. Trends in number of anti-vaccine tweets were examined at the national and state levels over time. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to determine census variables that were correlated with anti-vaccination tweet volume. Fifty percent of our sample of 549,972 tweets collected between 2009 and 2015 contained anti-vaccine beliefs. Anti-vaccine tweet volume increased after vaccine-related news coverage. California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania had anti-vaccination tweet volume that deviated from the national average. Demographic characteristics explained 67% of variance in geographic clustering of anti-vaccine tweets, which were associated with a larger population and higher concentrations of women who recently gave birth, households with high income levels, men aged 40 to 44, and men with minimal college education. Monitoring anti-vaccination beliefs on Twitter can uncover vaccine-related concerns and misconceptions, serve as an indicator of shifts in public opinion, and equip pediatricians to refute anti-vaccine arguments. Real-time interventions are needed to counter anti-vaccination beliefs online. Identifying clusters of anti-vaccination beliefs can help public health professionals disseminate targeted/tailored interventions to geographic locations and demographic sectors of the population.

Keywords

autism spectrum disorder; beliefs; big data; machine learning algorithms; social media; Twitter; vaccines 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

How to Cite

Tomeny, T., Vargo, C., & El–Toukhy, S. (2017) Geographic and demographic correlates of autism–related anti–vaccine beliefs on Twitter, 2009–15. Social Science & Medicine, 191, 168–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2017.08.041

BibTeX (.bib) RIS (.ris) CSL-JSON (.json)

Version and Rights

This is the author preprint. For the final published version, see the DOI above.