Boulder County Domestic Violence Enforcement Audit
Findings
The strongest verified finding is currently a limitation: the final disparity hypotheses are unresolved in the public release because the required model outputs and denominators are absent.
| hypothesis id | exact preregistered wording | primary estimand | primary model | expected direction | observed estimate | confidence or credible interval | multiplicity rule | smallest effect size of substantive interest | sample size | denominator | agency and period | robustness threshold | support status | analysis commit | data hash | preregistration hash | verification timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H0 | Recorded suspect sex is not associated with an enforcement decision among incidents with comparable pre-decision evidence and circumstances. | P(adverse enforcement | comparable event-party pre-decision facts) | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | all qualifying domestic-related event-parties, including no-arrest and no-report-only events | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.502942+00:00 | |||
| H1 | The share of male suspects changes materially at one or more funnel transitions. | change in recorded male share across suspect, arrest, referral, filing, conviction, and sentence stages | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | stage-specific linked counts from call/event-party through court disposition | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503135+00:00 | |||
| H2 | Male suspects have a different adjusted probability of arrest or sole-aggressor designation after conditioning only on facts available before the police decision. | adjusted risk difference in arrest or sole-aggressor designation by recorded suspect sex | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | all qualifying event-parties with pre-decision facts | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503138+00:00 | |||
| H3 | In opposing-complaint or bidirectional incidents, the within-incident probability of being the sole arrested party differs by recorded sex. | within-incident probability of sole arrest among opposing-complaint/bidirectional incidents | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | incidents with opposing complaints or independently codable bidirectional conduct | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503140+00:00 | |||
| H4 | Investigation-completeness items differ by suspect or alleged-victim sex after accounting for feasibility and relevance. | item-level and index-level investigation-completeness differences by recorded sex/dyad | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | all relevant and feasible investigative-action opportunities in sampled records | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503141+00:00 | |||
| H5 | Independently coded civil-only incidents involving male potential suspects have a different probability of criminal classification, DV designation, arrest, or referral. | P(criminal/DV escalation | independently rated civil-only event) by potential suspect sex | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | independently coded civil-only event-parties | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503143+00:00 | |||
| H6 | Independently coded probable-cause incidents involving female potential suspects have a different probability of report-only or civil disposition. | P(report-only or civil disposition | independently rated probable-cause event) by potential suspect sex | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | independently coded probable-cause event-parties | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503144+00:00 | |||
| H7 | DA filing, count retention, dismissal, plea, conviction, and sentence differ by recorded defendant sex after stage-appropriate adjustment. | stage-specific DA/court outcome differences by recorded defendant sex | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | all referred/filed/resolved DV-related counts with sex/gender and stage outcomes | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503145+00:00 | |||
| H8 | Agency-specific adjusted disparities differ across Boulder County agencies. | heterogeneity of adjusted disparities across Boulder County agencies | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | agency-specific comparable event-party cohorts | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503147+00:00 | |||
| H9 | Boulder County estimates differ from matched Colorado agencies after case-mix and data-completeness adjustment. | Boulder-vs-matched-Colorado-agency difference in adjusted estimates | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | matched Colorado agency incident-level cohorts with comparable fields | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503148+00:00 | |||
| H10 | Reporting party, caller, scene-presence, and police-contact selection differ across sex and dyad categories, making arrest-only comparisons materially biased. | sex/dyad differences in reporting, caller, and scene-presence selection | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | calls/events with caller role/sex, reporting role/sex, scene presence, and outcomes | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503150+00:00 | |||
| H11 | Verified policy or training changes alter investigation completeness or enforcement patterns. | policy/training change effect on investigation completeness or enforcement patterns | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | pre/post cohorts around verified implementation dates with stable measurement | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503151+00:00 | |||
| H12 | Officer, supervisor, prosecutor, agency, and year effects account for meaningful heterogeneity. | variance and clustering by officer, supervisor, prosecutor, agency, and year | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | case-level cohorts with pseudonymous actor IDs and outcomes | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503153+00:00 | |||
| H13 | Results differ across race or ethnicity, age, disability or mental-health indicators, housing status, language access, and LGBTQ status where fields are reliable, lawful, and sufficiently powered. | heterogeneity by race/ethnicity, age, disability/mental-health indicators, housing, language, and LGBTQ status | not run for confirmatory inference | two-sided unless preregistered otherwise | pending | pending | legally and ethically releasable group fields with adequate cell sizes | not established for confirmatory model | pending | unresolved_required_data_unavailable | not available in non-git research workspace | 31bccdf8841d4c11b9c1491d2f5eca49471b065bca18d25bb3e56858c1ed2927 | 4cd0ab806332360a3fde285c63a1493540a862398c5bff0a9bc7c6332b6f47c5 | 2026-06-24T16:49:49.503154+00:00 |